The method, in the open.
A result is only as useful as its definition. These are the inputs, scope, and editorial standards behind our inaugural research note.
Research note KR-2026-01
Prepared and source-reviewed October 14, 2026, in America/Los_Angeles. Study type: deterministic synthetic example. Observation window: none; the books are invented and frozen at a hypothetical instant.
The study asks how available ask quantities change the modeled cost of a specified purchase. It does not sample Kalshi’s public API or use account records.
Complete model inputs
Price unit: US cents per contract
Best YES bid: 46¢ in both examples
Book A asks [price, contracts]:
[48, 20], [50, 60], [55, 120]
Book B asks [price, contracts]:
[48, 5], [50, 15], [55, 180]
Requested quantity: integer, 1–200
Fees and book movement: excludedCalculation
Visit asks in ascending price order. Take the smaller of the remaining requested amount and available quantity. Subtract that amount from the remaining order. Add price multiplied by quantity to the total. Stop when the request is exhausted.
The explorer uses integer cents internally. Average price rounds to two decimal places in cents. “Above all-at-48¢ cost” means modeled total minus requested quantity multiplied by $0.48. It illustrates depth cost; it is not a fee quote or a live-fill forecast.
Source register
- Kalshi’s order-book guide. Used for the relationship between opposite-side bids and implied asks.
- Kalshi’s fixed-point reference. Used to distinguish simplified arithmetic from production price and quantity precision.
- Kalshi: Get Market Orderbook. A starting point for a separate observed-market study. No endpoint observations enter our calculation.
For an observed-market study
An empirical result would need a stated market universe, collection timestamps and timezone, endpoint and depth settings, a missing-data policy, and retained raw responses. A snapshot would still be a snapshot. Claims about execution would need execution evidence.
That is a publication standard, not a promise of recurring reports or an announcement of data already collected.
Ownership and corrections
Kalshi Report is published by Sun Flint and shares ownership with Kalshi Wire. Submit corrections through Sun Flint’s contact section with the report identifier, disputed calculation or claim, and evidence. Material changes will receive a dated correction on the affected report.
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